By Lt Gen Tariq Khan (R)
Date: 21 April 2026
Iran has announced that they do not intend coming to Islamabad. However, this commitment is subject to a stated condition – ‘US to lift the blockade of the Hormuz’, which when done, Iran would agree to come to Islamabad. The US activity has intensified, with numerous aircrafts landing in Islamabad. The US is now beyond conjecture and fully committed to holding the talks. Iran’s position is not clear because of the blockade. Trump has made aggressive, hostile statements – filled with animosity. We know that it was the US that wanted a ceasefire and not Iran. Trump’s posture contradicts this desire. Is it typical Trumpian brinkmanship to gain a better bargaining position? Iran has responded with a firm resolve and has shown no flexibility. The sticking point is Hormuz and enriched uranium. Iran will not compromise on Hormuz but is open to custodial supervision of uranium. The ceasefire ends at dawn 22nd April. Urgency is visible. Trump has been advised to lift the blockade. Unless the blockade is lifted, there will be no negotiations. Iranian delegation may arrive on 21st April if the blockade is lifted. Security is at its peak. Spoilers are circling to disrupt the process. Talks may begin on 22nd April, but a final agreement is unlikely. These talks may only set parameters for future engagements. The ceasefire may need extension. A final settlement may happen after Trump’s visit to China. Trust deficit remains the biggest issue. Iran believes the US cannot be trusted. How the US lifts the blockade will decide future talks. The US may need to manage its narrative to avoid backlash. Israel is unhappy and may disrupt negotiations through covert means. Israel stands to lose the most if an agreement is reached. Pakistan stands as an honest broker. It can bring parties to the table but cannot be held responsible for outcomes. Its stance must remain clear, visible, and unambiguous.
Lt Gen Tariq Khan (R)
World Strategic Expert & Analyst
